Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 242.41

+5.0%

Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36895)	8/18/2000 8:04:33 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Cary, that's what I was referring to when I said I thought subjective stuff (perceptions and psychology) were more influential in price determination. IMO, there's an undeniable central tendency towards what the numbers show. Your number-crunching is valid, but it's only one piece of the whole data picture. The max-pain theory is another. I view analyst actions to be trailing indicators rather than leading ones. Sentiment changes result in greater price excursions than the (fairly) predictable financials - as this week has shown. Last week, I didn't expect to see a price above 75 this week because of MY perception of analyst-driven pessimism. I was pleasantly surprised by the speed with which the pessimism whiplashed into optimism. One important lesson from last week that we should ALL keep in mind ... we're generally better and more quickly informed as a community than many other investors. That's a strategic advantage. However, when a concensus is formed here - quickly and robustly - it doesn't have the power to move the general market. Sometimes, we may just have to be patient while others reach the same conclusions more slowly. Tito's extended stairstep analogy is built on this. When it comes to a conflict between rogue analysts and the thread concensus, I'm more inclined to bet on us as a barometer of the subjective stuff. - Mitch

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