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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (8072)	8/18/2000 10:26:47 PM
From: Z268	Read Replies (1) of 12823

Raymond, Mike's stats are pretty consistent with figures from many of the forecasters. In fact his stats on Broadband are from IDC, if my memory serves me correct. The latest thinking is that we won't reach 5M broadband connections by end of this year (certainly it looks Vz may not get there what with the strike). There are actually about 112M households in the US, and about 132M lines (difference being accounted for by business lines and second lines). Line growth is about 3%, mostly second lines and business lines. The forecast is for broadband (xDSL, CM, wireless etc) to reach about 18% penetration by 2003, with DSL accounting for about 9.8M to 12.6M, depending on which forecaster you quote. Most forecasts having DSL outpacing CM by 2003. Broadband surpasses dial-up by 2004-2005. About 2/3rds of copper are within 18000 feet of a CO, and therefore likely to have an economic DSL solution. Cable passes about 2/3rds of US households, and over 90% of these will be 2-way capable. All cable overbuilders are putting in 2-way cable. This means there will definitely be a play for broadband fixed wireless. Hope this helps. Best, Steve

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