UW...My understanding is that Gelcore will buy materials from whomever can supply the materials on time and at the right price. They will buy from Emcore, UTCI, and CREE and others before all is said and done. There are at least two paths to white LEDs that I've been able to discern from the various press releases and research abstracts. I think Gelcore will produce products using any workable, cost effective method. As you said, GE will not settle for being less than #1 or #2 in any market. In this instance, the market for low power consumption lighting for industrial applications will ramp very fast once the products complete qualification testing. The consumer market takes a longer to penetrate because consumers are reluctant to spend more money for a product until they know for sure it will last longer or produce other savings.
Emcore definitely makes machines for CREE. Someone on the thread made a comment about CREE employing all the best SiC engineers, so for those reading the thread who are not familiar with this technology, it must be said that such a statement is absolutely false, not even close to reality. There are many outstanding III-IV compound semiconductor scientists and engineers out in the world, and like always, some have a desire to make their own paths. I know the CREE management understands this competitive issue and is neither overconfident nor unduly fearful.
CREE has a strong lead in many technology areas, which is an important reason to own this stock. But they are not the only game in town for some kinds of products, and we'll have to see how the market shakes out. I expect them to stay in front in some areas, but I also expect some products to become commodities that they might let go. High tech products go through the cycle of first article, then scientifically engineered product, then commodity. Even SiC products will become easily manufactured by companies who couldn't have done the scientific research, but who know how to run machines and maintain process control.
JBK |
