bcrafty - Hey! I am asking for help too!
I sometimes post answers that I presomptuously consider correct. As every body else here (or at RB), I am learning.
But this is our strenght: with the last analyst longdong mentionned, only three (to my knowledge) have creative thinking on the VIX:
Rex Takasugi
Bernie Schaeffer
Paul Cherney
and late entry...our own Joseph Silent (nice feature that 15 min. editing)
ALL the other sites I've been visiting in the last weeks, all warn that the red light is on with the low readings of the VIX.
If this is the overall sentiment of the market, gosh!, this could be the last time we would see such low prices.
If the crowd (including the fund managers and analysts) refrein their buying because of a low VIX, they will all be hurrying in the market by soon and the Nov-Dec rally (and the following correction) would be peanuts compared to what can happen.
This Mar-Apr correction has dammaged the wealth of many people, I don't dare evaluating the dammage of a steeper rally (and correction) to everyone's wealth, and the economy.
So, let's hope I am wrong.
But I am prepared for the event, this time I won't be caught in the correction. (Well, I said that in Apr 97 and went out at half the correction of Aug 98, thought it wouldn't happen again in Oct 99 and forgot about it in Mar 2000... one never learns.LOL.)
"Regarding the VIX as an indicator to get in or get out of the market, .." IMHO, no go.
If trading methods could be set to automatically trade the market at the best moments, why should the funds pay so richely some people to manage their funds? And for the most of them, barely beat the SP.
"... it's not what I thought it was and might be helpful only at market extremes."
Conventional wisdom sez that most traders correctly identify the trends, but that they are wrong at both ends.
Hence my trading style: buy high, sell higher, sell too soon. I can't pick the bottoms, and as long as I can sell higher than when I bot, I am happy. Just needing more time to retire. |
