| We have to wait until there is more development in Central and Eastern Europe before we will have the foggiest idea of how things may shape up. Unemployment in eastern Germany is 17%, for example, and bringing general prosperity will take years. The Germans have their hands full, and are not interested in asserting themselves at this point. Indeed, there is so much popular disaffection with the EU that the introduction of the euro is going very badly. In Italy, the Northern League, which would like the prosperous north to secede, is relatively strong, and there is a big issue nationwide with illegal immigration, from both Albania and North Africa. In Spain, Catalonia is asserting its autonomy, even taking out adds in magazines like The Economist making use of Catalan instead of Spanish, and the Basques just blew up more people in the North. In France, there is some ambivalence shown in polls about an EU that Germany is expected to dominate. Meanwhile, countries like Poland and the Czech Republic are just showing a turnaround, Slovakia and some of the former Soviet Republics, like Belarus and Ukraine, continue to flounder, and the Balkans remain volatile. A lot of people are holding their breath waiting for the other shoe to drop in Russia, and to see who will win the political contest. Europe, generally, is too fragmented, concerned with local problems, and in a state of suspense about the post- Cold War environment to constitute any real threat in the foreseeable future......... |
