MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: marginmike who wrote (4161)	8/20/2000 3:13:10 PM
From: LaVerne E. Olney	of 19219

marginmike: The point is that through the period of 1994-early 1995, the market was stalled while the FOMC had a succession of rate increases users.chartertn.net which is very similiar to the market of April, 1999->present. At the time of the last rate increase in 1995, the VIX was at a very low level users.chartertn.net and despite this manifestion of "complacency", the SPX had a 20% rise over the following 6 months. This was an illustration of a bull-market advance in the face of a very low VIX. (Note that the VIX scale is reversed.) It is my contention that today's low VIX (coming at the end of a series of interest rate hikes and stagnant market) maybe should not be viewed as the usual contrarian VIX indicator. leo

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