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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (30174)	8/20/2000 8:00:31 PM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) of 54805

I think this tornado is early and there are intersecting forces that may influence the game. We have GbE and Infiniband, about to duke it out with FC. We have DFAS/VI, which will even the playing field for all three. And we have EMC who really wants FC to win. DFAS/VI could be a tremendous hit below the belt for EMC. EMC's I/O bus in front of FC is proprietary, I am told. So their getting to DFAS/VI could be very difficult and take much time. BRCD's status in the next 2-3 years will depend not so much on their IPR, BTE, etc, but on their ability to adapt to the disruptive innovations that are clearly visible over the horizon (Infiniband, GbE, DAFS/VI). Their relationship with CSCO is key. CSCO is playing the field and investing in at least FC and GbE, and is part of the DAFS/VI collaboration. The timing and outcome of all this is not clear. I would not be surprised to see Tornadus Interruptus in late 2001. I am holding this one very lightly, indeed, but if BRCD's management have read Christensen's book they may be able to win no matter what. ds@gettingnauseousaboutscootingdogs.erp

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