<<< for at $10 you will not sell a billion bulbs. You might get 2 or 3 bucks a bulb, but not 10. Then again, they are not going to burn out after 1000 hours, so the replacement market is cut by 95% Does anyone know what Cree gets for a LED these days? And what the price might do on a 4000 fold increase in production?
Just got from closet a 4 pack of GE 60 watt Soft White. Average life - 1000 hours, light output 840 lumens, cost $2.99 for 4 or 75 cents per bulb. If a LED was good for 21 lumens you would need 40 for the light of a current 60 watt bulb, or under 2 cents per LED retail. I just don't know the cost per LED or Lumen per LED. It's a maybe but still going to take one heck of a lot of product to eat a trillion or 15 trillion baby Crees. >>>
William,
Your analysis leaves out a most important variable: the watts of your 40 LEDs. If your 40 LEDs produce the 840 lumens on 5 Watts, then people would be tripping over themselves buying the lights at $10 or even $20.
Go to Home Depot and you will find that Lights of America, GE, and Phillips offer fluorescent bulbs that "give the light of" a GE 60 watt Soft White, and they sell for far more than $10.
Why? Well, I just went to my closet and pulled out a Philips Earthlight bulb that lists for $20.95 and here's the comparison to your bulb:
"equivalent to light output of 90 watt incandescent bulb.....Lasts up to 7 years (10,000 hours), light output 1500 lumens, energy used 23 watts"
I now buy these bulbs through a special program offered in both Connecticut and Rhode Island through the utility companies that subsidizes the purchase price so that I pay just $6. I buy other bulbs that are 3-way, ceiling globes, floodlights, and even bug lights. I have virtually no incandescent bulbs in either of my homes.
If CREE can provide equal but even less costly substitutes, there will be a market. We might even have Connecticut Light and Power subsidizing their sales <ggg>.
Marc |
