DrBob RE My Take At Present
Sorry I slept through the AOL and Voice Chat. Have no idea what was said there.
As I see things now, we have about another month of "summer doldrums" during which time we could retest the lows. I'm speaking only of Nasdaq here. I think it is more likely that we will not retest the lows, but that is always a possibility. We are more likely to stay within a range between 4000 and 3700 with a few penetrations possible on both ends.
The "bullish breakout" will happen, IMO, when the polls and, thus, the market, clearly perceive that Bush will win the election in November. The markets, particularly the nasdaq, will visualize the Reagan years all over again, and the internets will be the catalyst. I think we are at least a month away from such market perception.
This is not a "political statement." It is my honest analysis of how politics does, in fact, affect the stock market--particularly in an election year.
If the Republicans fumble the ball again, as they have many times in the past, and Gore emerges as the perceived winner, I think we will not get the bullish rally we all hope for. The market has perceived the Republicans to be more "user friendly" in recent history.
If we do get a nice rally in the Fall, we should be ready to take profits in February at the latest. The year after an election tends to be soft, and 2001 could be particularly soft if the "bubble" and "tulip" mentality continues.
I remain long in cmgi, enga, bvsn, edig, and sofn. Other holdings are icalf (that turkey), and alcs where I got only a few shares during the IPO.
Best,
p40warhawk |
