Technology On Brink Of Explosive Growth
By Amy Gilroy
Read the last two paragraphs and then look back on this board and read about what CY is doing in Bluetooth
U.S. Networked Homes Forecast
Deployment of Networking Technology
US Households Online
Expected Deployment of Networking Technology
HomePNA's Forecast
What is the Primary Reason You Would Buy a Home Network?
Broadband Internet Users
Type of Network Installed
By 2003, home networking will be vastly different from what it is today. Instead of a small group of households (3.7 percent) working on an Ethernet connection that requires new wiring in the home, network equipment will be built into common consumer electronics products that will simply plug into a wall or phone line to "talk to" other home devices.
Analysts are predicting near-meteoric growth for home networking, increasing from an installed base of 1.6 million households in 2000 to 9.5 million in 2003, according to the Yankee Group of Boston .
Driving that growth will be the rise of simple network technology that will be invisible to the end user. Instead of buying add-on home networking kits, as is currently the case, consumers will purchase computers, DVD players, telephones and myriad other devices that will have built-in network technology.
Some products will work on wireless radio frequency network standards such as IEEE 802.11b, HomeRF or Bluetooth. Others will plug into a wall or phone line for instant network recognition - using HomePlug Powerline Alliance or Home Phoneline Networking Alliance (HomePNA) specifications, respectively. There are also "middleware" applications such as Jini, HAVi and UPnP, which are expected to enable CE components to instantly recognize each other, once hooked up to a network.
Most home networks are used for sharing peripherals (such as a printer or scanner) or sharing Internet service (one account can be accessed by many PCs at one time). But PC connectivity alone will not drive the 95 percent compounded annual growth expected between 1999 and 2003. That demand, say analysts, will come from the desire for more convenient entertainment delivery.
For example, the Blockbuster store of the future might send a "rental video" over a broadband connection to a home PC, which will then distribute it to any TV in the house, for viewing at any time. Or, the PC will send MP3 recordings to a stereo receiver, which will direct the music to speakers in various rooms throughout the home - all without complicated new wiring.
The Yankee Group predicts that within 18 months, most PCs, as well as game consoles such as the PlayStation, will have embedded home networking technology.
By 2003, networking standards such as HomePNA, HomePlug, HomeRF or 802.11b will be able to support speeds fast enough to allow distributed digital MPEG4 (a next-generation compression standard for digital video) over home networks.
Parks Associates, Dallas, recently completed a consumer study in which 69 percent of respondents said they would be interested in a DSS solution that would let them watch programming on a second TV without the separate receiver (usually costing $100 to $200).
"Another driver will be the idea of having a home server that will store content, from music to videos and games," said Parks home networks analyst Kurt Scherf. "We've already seen the popularity of the TiVo Replay devices. There are a lot of folks who think that something like that will be the centerpiece of the home network. Napster [or other MP3 websites] could be on the server, and the kids could stream [MP3] to any stereo in the home. Forty five percent of consumers said they were interested in audio networking."
Karuna Uppal, senior analyst for the Yankee Group, maintained that "the home network will become more about the devices in the home, not just sharing PCs, but pushing radio around your house so you can listen to CDs playing downstairs while you are upstairs, or downloading video off the Internet and piping it through the TV. These will appeal to a mass audience."
Different types of devices are expected to operate on different types of home networks. For example, Bluetooth, a low-cost radio technology optimized for portable devices, will be used to link cellular phones and PDAs, while laptop computers might be more suited to wireless HomeRF or 802.11b networks, according to analysts.
Until recently, phone-line networking was considered a front-running technology because it is inexpensive and the unified HomePNA standard already exists, while no single power-line specification had been determined.
In June, however, the HomePlug Powerline Alliance chose Intellon's 10 Mbps technology as a baseline for a specification and claimed that a final specification would be set by year's end. This caused several analysts to begin revising their forecasts because most homes have far more wall jacks than phone jacks.
There are other pros and cons associated with the different types of networks. HomePNA phone-line, for example, has a head start on HomePlug and is considered a proven technology.
HomePlug, however, has the advantage of myriad wall-jack outlets throughout the house, although some industry members say older homes with older wiring may not be able to support a network. In addition, power-line networks may be subject to interference.
"Nothing will really happen with power-line in 2000 because there's no HomePlug spec yet," said Parks' Scherf. "If they make a first-quarter 2001 deadline, they'd be doing pretty well. Ethernet and phone-line will still dominate this year, and RF is finally picking up.
"Power-line will probably capture more than the 15 percent market share we had originally predicted by the end of 2004. It will probably cut into phone-line's share."
Scherf's original forecasts for 2004 called for a total 29-30 million network nodes (networked items such as PCs) in the United States, with phone-line taking a 55 percent share, HomeRF or 802.11b at 25-30 percent, and power-line at 15 percent.
The Yankee Group's Karuna predicts market shares of 65-70 percent in HomePNA and 25-30 percent in wireless HomeRF or 802.11b by 2003.
Power-line networks will represent approximately 5-10 percent, she said. "They have to prove it works first before we adjust our forecasts. If it only works in 60 percent of households, it will affect sales. Old wiring in homes and interference are still issues. There are still a lot of skeptics."
Perhaps the most convenient forms of networking are wireless technologies using such standards as HomeRF and/or 802.11b.
Currently, the HomeRF specification supports speeds of 1.6 Mbps, but the HomeRF Working Group has proposed a specification for up to 10 Mbps that is awaiting FCC approval (expected at the end of the summer). The IEEE 802.11b standard currently supports 11 Mbps. However, the institute has already proposed an 802.11a standard that would allow network speeds of 54 Mbps.
The HomePNA claims it will be able to achieve 20 Mbps from its 2.0 spec by the end of the year, when it also plans to demonstrate 100 Mbps capacity, said analysts. Power-line is also claiming it will soon ramp up to 100 Mbps.
Worldwide, phone-line technology is expected to play less of a role because most homes overseas have fewer phone jacks. Cahners In-Stat Group, San Jose, Calif., predicts that by 2004, wireless technology HomeRF will grow to 30 percent of worldwide network systems, while phone-line will account for 36 percent, and Ethernet will account for 8 percent.
Cahners also forecasts that by 2005 demand for Bluetooth-enabled products will grow to "at least 1 billion units," said Joyce Putscher, director of the Consumer and Convergence Group. This is considered particularly rapid growth as Bluetooth devices are only expected to begin appearing this year. |
