Aug.21 ,2000 CNC NEWS and Review
PART A is New
PART B are previously posted articles and Posts
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PART A
Today we had a taste of things to come:
Shorty started covering after reading StreetCom.
CNC closed up at 7 ½ up 2.6 % on light volume 3,230,000 shares
At the close Ask was 102,300 @ 7.5 and ask 15,500 @ 7 9/16
Shorty Inc COVERING their butt ” en-masse “
As TheStreetCom.com article put it:
thestreet.com
kevin, let's you and i and donjuan savour for a moment THE GREAT StreetCom
article of today:
thestreet.com
What Happens When Short-Selling Goes Bad
(aka " What happens when a love-affair goes bad "
".......short-sellers
can also cause a stock to rise
if they're forced en masse
to buy back the shares they sold short.
" music music...music...
...Meet what's called the short squeeze....
" ...If the price of a stock that's heavily shorted
starts to rise, you can see the opposite happen.
Numerous short-sellers can be forced to start buying
shares to cover their positions, which can drive the stock
price higher and higher.
A couple of events can cause this so-called short squeeze.
right on brother
".....If the short is dillydallying,
the broker can buy the shares directly to
return to the shareholder
and pass on the cost to the short-seller.
More buying creates additional demand for the stock,
which can cause its price to go higher.
Conseco shareholder Irwin Jacobs is pushing
for just this sort of squeeze.
If Conseco shareholders demanded their shares back en masse,
the people who are short the stock could be forced
to buy it in mass quantities.
That buying would probably help this stock, which has
fallen 25% since the end of June.
A short squeeze can also happen when a heavily shorted
stock starts to rise, and short-sellers start buying to
close their positions and cut their losses.
The higher the price goes, the more money the short loses.
At some point, the short-seller will probably give in and buy.
"We get nervous when we are down 30%," says the fund
manager.
BUYING BEGETS BUYING , creating a SNOWBALL EFFECT
Short-sellers buying shares to cover their positions push
the price higher and force more shorts to do the same.
The potential for a short squeeze is one reason that some
investors watch rising short interest.
When a stock's short interest exceeds 20% of the
number of shares that trade, some people believe the stock
is ripe for a short squeeze, which means a nice pop in price.
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LOVE IT ! ! ! !
..Shorts buying EN- MASSE………
..Snow Ball Effect………
..Price to sky-rocket…….
..Shorts forced to cover………..
..Broker buying shares in the market
and passing on the costs to the short seller…....
music...music...music...
We are still happy with Wendt caming out and taking
His gloves off with Shorty Inc: He said
NOT TO WORRY ! ! ! !
siliconinvestor.com
=================================
Finally Shorts are still deluding themselves that Wendt
came to CNC for a handout.It isn't so.We caled Investors relations
office today: INVESTOR RELATIONS SAYS:
" Mr. Wendt paid the taxes on the bonus.
His bonus was not grossed up.
He received $45 million before taxes.
messages.yahoo.com
cheers
TA
PART B –PREVIOUSLY POSTED
************************************************************** $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ **************************************************************
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CNC Balance Sheet
conseco.com
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CNCRestructuringProgram.com
quicken.com
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CNC CHART & Technical Analysis
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CHART
stockcharts.com[L,A]DCCLYYMY[DC][PB10!B20!B30!B50!F][VC60][IUH14,3!LI14,3!LC20!LK14!LA12,26,9]
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SI CHART
siliconinvestor.com
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MONEY FLOW Stats by Softechie Aug 8, 3000 :
Message 14184790
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That story is best illustrated by today’s featured post by paulthebigfinn at YHOO:
Management’s statement today is significant for the things it didn’t say. It went
.
.
messages.yahoo.com
“CARMEL, Ind.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 17, 2000--Conseco, Inc. (NYSE:CNC - news) today issued the following statement: ``We believe that short sellers and other persons have been disseminating misleading information about Conseco's upcoming debt maturation. We refer investors to pages 7 and 46 of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2000, (filed last Monday) in which we indicated that:
Conseco is currently in discussions with its bank lenders with respect to extension of its debt maturities. Although no agreement has been reached, management is optimistic that appropriate extensions can be negotiated.
 Conseco has embarked on several courses of action with respect to its Conseco Finance Corp. subsidiary (including asset dispositions and restructuring of ongoing businesses), as well as an asset disposition program with respect to certain non-strategic assets at the parent company level. These initiatives are designed to allow Conseco to reduce parent company debt over time. Conseco believes that the sale of non-strategic assets and the actions contemplated at Conseco Finance will generate cash proceeds of approximately $2.0 billion over the next 12 to 15 months.
``Please refer to the 10-Q for additional information.''
.
.
Management thinks shorts are “disseminating misleading information…” and quoted the previous public record for support. Why wasn’t any new information given? I can think of three answers:
1. They are in negotiations for the roll over, but don’t have it finalized yet.
2. They are selling something big and don’t have Lehman’s permission to use the funds yet.
3. They are trying to sell the whole company…
I can’t think of any bad reason they wouldn’t say more. If the shorts were telling the truth, then why issue a press release? I can only get management is in deep sh*t with the SEC. No, IMHO this is the start of something big.
By: paulthebigfinn
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MAJOR RECENT ARTICLES ON CNC
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Aug. 17,2000: Business Wire: Wendt Battles Shorts
Message 14227830
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Aug.15,2000: 1) Lehman Is Latest Hurdle For Conseco's Recovery
Message 14214595
Aug.15,2000: Conseco Still Negotiating Debt Maturity With Lenders
Message 14214598
.
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.Aug. 14,2000: FITCH TO UPGRADE COMSECO?? Because it is
overcollateralized?
Message 14212528
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Aug 9 (Reuters) - Conseco Finance, fixed final terms for its 2000-4 series $1.2 billion
nine-tranche asset-backed bond launched on August 4.
Rating Aaa/AAA/AAA
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
Aug. 9,: A consortium of eight insurance companies has completed a $40.5 million investment in
affordable-housing projects across the state, the first test of an effort to get insurers
to voluntarily invest in community development.
ragingbull.altavista.com
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Aug. 4, 2000: Conseco prices senior classes of $1.2 bln ABS deal favorably
ragingbull.altavista.com
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Aug. 4, 2000:Conseco Capital Management Names New Co-Portfolio Managers
for Conseco High Yield Fund
Conseco Promotes From Within After High-Yield Exodus
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
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7/27/00 BUSINESS WIRE:
CONSECO Announces Restructuring Program ,Parts I, II, III & IV , from RB
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
quicken.com
.
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DOW JONES NEWSWIRE 7/27/00:COMPLETE EPS REPORT
1: dowjones.work.com
2: dowjones.work.com
3: dowjones.work.com
7/24/00 BLOOMBERG: WENDT GETS RID OF LEOPARD CHAIR AND .......PROTECTS SHAREHOLDER EQUITY:
…
quote.bloomberg.com
.
. 7/19/2000 WENDT HIRES Ex-GE CRISIS TEAM
biz.yahoo.com
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7/12/2000 20 MILLION PAID TO HIRE WENDT
Wendt gets 45 mill less than if he had stayed at the Golf Course and got paidby GE to non - compete and do nothing. GE gets 10 mill CNC shares,
will make another killing.
.
messages.yahoo.com
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8/21/00:CONSECO INVESTOR RELATIONS SAYS:
Mr. Wendt paid the taxes on the bonus. His bonus was not grossed up. He received $45 million before taxes.
messages.yahoo.com
6/30/2000 WENDT BACK FROM HONEYMOON messages.yahoo.com
..
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VARIOUS CNC INVESTORS
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.
GABELLI FUND UP 23% has 9% of position in CNC:
messages.yahoo.com
PROFIT VALUE FUND: 4 star Morningstar rating.
In last 3 months has added new position in Conseco,
to make in 8th largest position;
position similar in size to its holding in Berkshire.
messages.yahoo.com
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BROKERS’ and ANALYSTS ‘ OPINION
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8/15/00 Bloomberg: Novell, Conseco Are Among the True Stock Bargains:J.Dorfman
cnetinvestor.com
Message 14220318
8/10/2000Gary Smith from REALMONEY.COM at The StreetCom
puts a buy on CNC with a stop at 7.
Anyway, here are a few charts to look at as you sip your morning Cafe Yukon:
thestreet.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
thestreet.com
8/5/00 S & P raises Outlook to highest, 5 ( on scale 1 to 5 )
messages.yahoo.com
7/30/00 STANDARD AND POOR UPGRADES CNC TO 4 STARS FROM 3 STARS
Message 14133330
Maintains: Accumulate: messages.yahoo.com
7/31/00 Merrill Lynch messages.yahoo.com
.7/26/00 LEHMAN MAINTAINS OUTPERORM II ON CNC Message 14109720
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OVERVIEW of CONSECO INSURANCE RATINGS
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conseco.com
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RATING AGENCIES , MOODY’S, S & P etc
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.
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FITCH
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Aug. 14,2000: FITCH TO UPGRADE COMSECO?? Because it is
overcollateralized?
Message 14212528
Aug. 11. 2000:Conseco 2000-4 $1.2B Manufactured Hsg Contract P-T Rtd By Fitch
Message 14200638
biz.yahoo.com
Aug. 11, 2000: Fitch Downgrades Conseco Rtgs
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14200576
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S & P
.===============
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www2.marketwatch.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
S&P cuts Conseco Fin status
Aug. 8, 2000--3:18 pm - By Chris Kraeuter
Conseco Finance's credit rating status was revised to "negative" from "developing" by Standard & Poor's. According to a S&P statement, S&P "believes Conseco Finance's creditworthiness is severely limited by a lack of funding flexibility and aggressive leverage." Also, S&P cited its belief that the finance unit will not be sold to a "higher-rated" entity in the foreseeable future. Conseco Finance's ratings were placed on "developing" on March 31. Conseco's (CNC: news, msgs) ratings status was placed on "negative" on April 7. Currently, Conseco shares are down 1/16 to 7 7/8 on volume of 2.8 million shares.
ragingbull.altavista.com
Comment from RB poster on above S & P reports:
messages.yahoo.com
8/9/00 1:58:00 PM : Business WireS&P Places Various Green Tree Cert Rtgs on Watch Neg
The revision in the CreditWatch status reflects the increasing likelihood that
Conseco Finance will not be sold to a higher-rated entity in the foreseeable future.
ragingbull.altavista.com
Comment from RB poster on above S & P reports:
.
.
MOODY’S
=======================
quote.bloomberg.com
. " While Moody's said it expects the company and its bank lenders to reach a satisfactory agreement,
it said the details of such an agreement and the effects on Conseco's operations remain uncertain.
moodys.com
New York, June 30, 2000 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the credit ratings of
Conseco, Inc. and its affiliates (senior debt rating to Ba3 from Ba1).
moodys.com
New York, April 20, 2000 -- Moody's Investors Service lowered the senior
unsecured debt ratings of Conseco, Inc. and Conseco Finance to Ba1 from Baa3.
.
MORNINGSTAR/FINANCIAL
============================
messages.yahoo.com
Morningstar grades CNC a B-, for financial health, just slightly below average
for insurance industry and average for universe of stocks.
.
.
DALBAR Insurance Rating Web site
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Part 1
messages.yahoo.com
Part 2
messages.yahoo.com
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VARIOUS OTHER ISSUES IN CNC:
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ISSUE OF PRODUCING A GIANT SHORT SQUEEZE:
================================================
First, to effect a short squeeze in CNC and see a giant squirt
of cash upwards in your CNC stock:
b) ask your broker to put the stock out of Street name, or
b) ask your broker to put a sell price “ good till cancelled “
at let’s say $40 or $50. That will remove it from the short pool..
c) or simply ask him to restrict it, ie you don’t want to have it
loaned out for shorting.
.
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Aug: 11, 2000:REUTERS: "Liquidator" Jacobs bets on insurer's turnaround
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14172703
CNC in WORTH Magazine via Maverick Capital's Hedge Fund Manager - Lee Ainslie.
Ainslie is a noted short seller who has averaged 24.8% after fees with $5B under management.
He has covered his CNC position: “ I am not going to go
Against somebody of Wendt’s reputation “.
.
8-1-00 Star Tribune: Neal St. Anthony/On Business:
Jacobs roars, short sellers yawn
startribune.com
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7/31/00 J.J. CRAMER FROM TheStreetCom editorializes: “ A great Idea !!!”
ragingbull.altavista.com
7/27/00 IRWIN JACOBS WANTS TO PRODUCE A SHORT SQUEEZE.
.
……….He puts this Ad in WallStJ. then other papers
.http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7081488&tid=cnc&mid=62147&sid=7081488
streetmonkey.com
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IRWIN JACOBS PICTURE : interactive.wsj.com
.
Angling for Tie-Ins, Irwin Jacobs Took Up Big-Time Bass Fishing
interactive.wsj.com
Message 14204449
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CURRENT SHORT INTEREST
.
is ! 64, 000, 000 shares according to Wall St. Jour.
But could be much higher, 78,211,523 shares
According to this web site:
trading-ideas.com
Shorting Rules
ragingbull.altavista.com
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BOOKS ON SHORTING
========================
(We encourage would be shorts to read these
and go ahead short some more and make
Mr.Wendt’s Day when the big squeezarooo comes along).
capatcolumbia.com
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BAD SHORTING ADVICE
.
“Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments “
in SI Thread, by Mr. P$nk Esq.
Message 14187856
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MISCELLANEOUS SHORTING
===============================
CNC Stock Analysis of the day by paulthebigfinn at YAHOO board
messages.yahoo.com
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7/22/2000 ISSUE OF CNC BANKRUPTCY
AND of DILUTION of SHAREHOLDER EQUITY
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Part I messages.yahoo.com.
Part II messages.yahoo.com.
messages.yahoo.com.
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7/28/00 :ISSUE of FABER CNBC REPORT & CONTROVERSY
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( ie that Wendt is going to dilute shareholder equity ?).
ragingbull.altavista.com
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7/29/00 reply by ta to FABER Report: CNBC FABER is either LYING or MISINFORMED
.
messages.yahoo.com
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7/24/00 Cnet : ''We're not going to be diluting shareholder value at ridiculously low prices,'' Wendt said.
cnetinvestor.com
.
messages.yahoo.com
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7/31/00 FABER CORRECTS HIMSELF: “ CNC WILL N O T ISSUE ANY N E W EQUITY “.
.
boards.cnbc.com
.
Thank you Mr. FABER.
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ISSUE OF MR.T.LEE'S PREFERRED STOCK
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Aug.16:RBull: by Normal_Deviate
ragingbull.altavista.com
Aug.16:RBull: by NJ-Gator:
ragingbull.altavista.com
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
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ISSUE of VALUE of PREFERRED STOCK
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messages.yahoo.com
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LAWSUITS, INTERNET AND CNC
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8/14/00 CNC hires David Herzog as V.P. and General Counsel
Message 14211926
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From Law firm Baker and Daniels
a very large Indianapolis firm:
bakerdaniels.com
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REVIEW OF RECENT INTERNET LAWSUITS:
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Message 14157877
Friday August 4, H-Quotient, Inc., Files Suit Against Alleged Stock Manipulators Message 14173025
The most recent Lawsuit won by Biometrix
Message 14158321
And just before that New subpoenas on the way
biz.yahoo.com
.
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NEGATIVE ARTICLES ON CNC
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8/17/00 The StreetCom: Good News with a “ BAD Spin “,
which StreetCom specializes in:
Message 14230638
.
7/27/00 TheStreetCom: Herb's Hotline: Oversight by Conseco?
thestreet.com
7/10/00 TheStreetCom: Conseco Sets Rich Pay Package for New CEO, By Peter Eavis
Message 14023449
7/11/00 Herb's Hotline: Will These Conseco Capers Never Cease?
By Herb Greenberg
thestreet.com
&/14/00 Bloomberg :Conseco Outdoes Itself in Piling Gifts on Wendt:
by Graef Crystal
ragingbull.altavista.com
7/31/00 Warburg initiates coverage with hold;
messages.yahoo.com
7/31/00WSJ Colin Devine from Smith Barney is worried about CNC
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
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MISCELLANEOUS
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MISCELLANEWS CNC NEWS
August 11, 2000: Dow Jones News: Conseco Preferred gains in NYSE
Message 14204249
August 11, 2000: Dow Jones News:
CNC FLEXIBLE PORTFOLIO MUTUAL FUNDS TOP PERFORMANCE
Message 14204221
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WHY I INVEST IN CONSECO
ragingbull.altavista.com
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.WHAT IS CNC REALLY WORTH?
View from a competitor Mr.Nauert, CEO of CERES:
Message 14173062
A CNC competitor!! ,Mr.Nauert, CEO of Ceres says that
starnews.com
If sold to the right buyers, Nauert said, Conseco's insurance operations could bring as much as $7 billion. That's the equivalent of $21 a share -- nearly three times Conseco's current stock price.
And this is from a competitor!!!!
.
WHO IS GARY WENDT
********************************************************.
Aug. 7, 2000 :BUSINESS WEEK
ragingbull.altavista.com
My comments on Business Week Article: Music…Music…Music..
Message 14127197
1997 FORBES/GECAPITAL: " BLOWING BUBBLES "
forbes.com
July 5, 2000: REVIEW OF GARY WELCH LIFE AND ARTICLES
Message 13993832
July 10, 2000: W S J : GE Capital’s Wendt: " A BRUTAL NEGOTIATOR "
Message 14023303
WENDT'S BUSINESS CARD
********************************
I am responsible for 38% of GE's net income:
GE’s profit has come increasingly from Financial Services
That’s GECapital, the company I run, at GE:
businessweek.com
And here how I compare with the giants:
quicken.com
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TA
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APPENDIX DEDICATED TO MISCELLANEOUS IN SHORTING:
======================================================
An introductory song about short covering:
“Come on baby, we got a lot of short-coverin’ goin’ on “
By Jerry Lee Lewis
amazon.com
“ It HURTS to be a SHORT “
amazon.com
( aka #2 It Hurts to Be in Love By Gene Pitney )
amazon.com
============================================================
Shorts felt REALLY BAD today.
How bad does it feel? Check this…
amazon.com
#5: Like a Rolling Stone
amazon.com
==========================================================
Shorts thought of going the Hemlock way.We suggested they do it properly
And go here:
Here's the proper way to use Hemlock:
First become informed
hemlock.org
Then
"Think Happy Thoughts"
as
by Jim Handey...
hemlock.org
Then do it.
COVER YOUR BUTT!!!COLD TURKEY is always best:
hemlock.org |
