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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 88.13+1.0%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: jim kelley who wrote (50670)8/22/2000 2:04:40 AM
From: NightOwl  Read Replies (1) of 93625
 
Jim,

You are right of course in so far as you assert that the Fab guys (at least the efficient ones:8) are getting fat, and are happy to maximize profits. But their "conspiracy" is aided by fragmentation in the memory market. Any fragmentation. It makes little difference whether DDR is getting ready to ramp.

Until new Fab lines come on board most of the DDR production will come through converting current SDRAM production lines.

The real crimp in your DRDRAM production is probably caused by the explosion in Flash, SRAM and embedded DRAM. This stuff is flying out the doors. I had taken the reverse of your view initially, i.e., that DRDRAM was wasting capacity (actually I still do:8); but if you check out the memory makers WEB pages and take a look at the nonDRDRAM world of applications you will see amazing things going on.

And it isn't about to stop. There is segmentation all over the place, the ASIC guys and CPU/MPU makers are playing the same game.

There will be lots of cash to be made in this new environment. But from what I've seen it won't be made listening to INTC. They are no longer cutting edge it seems. Across the board from CPU's to SRAMs and ASICs they appear to be playing catch up. They have clearly put a ton of resources internally into RMBS, but they have spread themselves exceedingly thin and don't seem to have the focus they once had.

I smell another acquisition binge coming from Santa Clara. But its late arriving. Very late.

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