Something for long-term investors in the field
Predictions made by Francis Collins, director of the National Human Genome Research Institute, National Institutes of Health, June 7, 2000 at the Haverford College meeting "Genetics, Bioethics, and Religion."
2010
-Predictive genetic tests will be available for approximately 25 genetic conditions.
-Gene therapy will be successful for a few conditions.
-Many primary care providers will become practitioners of genetic medicine.
-Embryo preimplantation diagnosis for some genetic conditions will be widely available.
-Limits of use of genetic intervention will be widely debated.
2020
-The next generation of drugs, based upon knowledge of the human genome, will be on the market in a big way.
-Cancer therapy will be highly targeted, based upon individual genetic fingerprints.
-The promise of individualized treatment through pharmacogenomics will begin to be realized for many drugs.
-The diagnosis of mental illnesses will be transformed, and novel new therapies will be available. Society's view of mental illness will undergo a major transformation.
-Homologous recombination technologies will suggest that germ-line therapy could be safe.
2030
-The genes involved in human aging will be catalogued.
-Clinical trials will be underway for agents designed to extend human life span.
-A full computer model of a human cell will be used for many lab experiments.
-The determination of complete individual gene sequences will be routine and cost less than $1000.
-Major antitechnology movements will be active in the United States and elsewhere.
2040
-Comprehensive genomics-based health care will be in place.
-Disease predisposition based upon genetic analysis at birth will be available.
-Illness will be routinely detected very early by genomic surveillance.
-Gene therapy-based therapeutics will be routinely available.
-Average life span will be 90 years.
-Worldwide inequities in the availability of genomic-based medicine and technologies will cause major political tensions.
-A serious discussion will be underway regarding taking charge of our own evolution - a chilling possibility |
