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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: BigBull who wrote (71378)8/22/2000 3:56:22 PM
From: Winkman777  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
Bull, I think that John is probably correct in saying <<that things look too damn rosy>>. This feeling as well as board sentiment have often indicated an approaching downhill. Crude and NG off their peaks somewhat today.

But maybe "it's different this time".

Feeling content with RIG/FLC. The large write off of Goodwill (and resultant lower earnings) is imho an accounting game necessitated by the "purchase" method of acquisition. Increased cash flow is the key here. That and a better credit rating will help wipe out Falcon's immense and very costly debt.

Fidelity has a 60% margin requirement of FLC, while RIG is the standard 35%. Maybe being 57 and retired for 2 years, it is about time to become more conservative. At least until I see another opportunity to "buy low" or sell naked puts. (vbg)

Like John, I also expect a crude build of near 5mmbl. If only a small build, maybe Bernie's mystery fleet of tankers got lost or went the wrong way. (G)

Again Bullski thanks for your manifold contributions. One thing that you have continually emphasized was the big increase in demand in China and other Tigers. That imho is what makes the most difference this time.

Take care and invest wisely. Winkman
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