A post addressing conviction *and* NTII? I hear that they're throwing a retirement party for de Castro.
Rick of course does it with considerably more conviction when he likes one of these forgotten stocks, but I don't ever have the stomach for a major bet.
As recently as '98, I was a long-term hold guy. I rarely violated my "seven percent rule"... I had a basket of "good science" companies, none of which could comprise greater than 7% of the portfolio.
Then came Sibia. An 80% premium may not seem like much (was Lampert correct, or was Lampert correct?), unless it's on 50-60% of what you own.
Since that time, I've learned to take advantage, when liquidity passes over pothole-bound stuff.
We have some investors drooling over CALP at a market cap of $1.1 billion, down from $4.3 billion. At the same time, we have companies with great "drug-related" patents, cash flow from partners, and proven infrastructures, available for a song.
Underwriters go out of their way to screw up valuation in the sector. As long as they do such and as long as most analysts are nothing other than flapping lips, I'll be a position trader (supplemented with day trades). The profit is too easy, and it's almost entirely anxiety-free.
NTII is an old-time biotech, dragged to the pits by Jeff Price et al. For all of those who stuck it out or came late to the party.......
CONGRATULATIONS!!
(wish I was among you) |
