Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (36957)	8/23/2000 11:48:47 AM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Spot prices of DRAMs and DIMMs have started falling in North America and Europe, with the decline due to the restraining effects of high prices on demand, and not any oversupply conditions. Folks, this is likely what caught JJ and the others. They saw the DRAM prices leveling, but didn't check closely enough why. They tripped over two bad assumptions - 1) they assumed that as goes DRAM, so goes the cycle, and 2) they assumed DRAM price drops showed oversupply and raced to call the cycle over. Ooops. <g> It's the capacity, stupid, as our discussion showed we'd thought through. Good call, thread. Easy money, if one had the courage not to take counsel of another's fears (paraphrasing Patton). - Mitch

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