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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Brian who wrote (71489)8/23/2000 2:06:24 PM
From: que seria  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
This call on Berkley is an attempt to thank all those who've
posted good ideas that I've traded off. Caveat emptor: I'm like Blonde in being a shameless amateur whose DD consists of following up the ideas of Slider, Jim_p, and others. In fact, my DD on this one comes courtesy of good posters on SI's KOB thread. Many have thought BKP pricey up to now.

Berkley (BKP.TO) may be at a triple bottom with today marking the start of a turning point in sentiment. I'm betting we are seeing and will see the replacement of fatigued and disappointed believers in management's too lofty promises with new value hunters who see strong fundamentals, lots of exploration upside, and now a decent cash flow multiple (at the expense of the old investors).

Jim_p: I'm not sure why you don't chart this one; perhaps the debt. It should be coming down this year. However, failure to bring it down faster is part of management's inexplicable history of undermining its fine results by promising and failing to deliver even better ones. If BKP is a value play, that's why. Management has just now issued more realistic guidance for this and next year. For diversification, I intended to buy Talisman or Pan Canadian, but looking at their relative valuations I just had to load more BKP today.

The 10 day chart:

bigcharts.com

The quarterly:

fin-info.com

Thanks Jim_p for the great table, and many others for your insights on this thread.
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