Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 104.57

-5.5%

2:21 PM EST

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To: gnuman who wrote (50906)	8/23/2000 3:30:27 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) of 93625

Hi Gene Parrott; Re the Eminian article's numbers... The industry puts out something like $30 billion in DRAM per year. At say $8 each, that is something like 4 billion chips per year. So the 300 million figure is clearly the Samsung total, not the industry total. What Samsung is talking about is itself producing total RDRAM amounting to 300 million x 15% = 45 million chips. This is about 1% of total DRAM production. Of course there will be other producers of RDRAM, but nowhere near enough to get the total percentage above 5%. Correcting these figures for bits, (i.e. taking into account that the typical RDRAM chip has more bits than the average DRAM chip) makes the numbers better, and then converting to $ instead of bits (because RDRAM is the most expensive) makes it better, but in any case Eminian is simply not talking about RDRAM taking over the market. And then he said that Samsung shipments of DDR will approximately match those of RDRAM next year (i.e. 15% of Samsung production). This coming from Samsung, the big leader in RDRAM production. Since there are more companies making big volume in DDR than in RDRAM, this clearly indicates that he expects DDR to be easily the volume leader in 2001. (Are you reading this Zeev, or are you going to continue to make misinformed comments about memory technology?) What he did was give a eulogy over the death of RDRAM. That the stuff is deader than a doornail is quite clear to the people who follow the industry. (the link:) ebnews.com -- Carl

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