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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 665.67-0.9%Nov 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (58401)8/23/2000 8:31:50 PM
From: Saulamanca  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
I haven`t traded a nut in a long time. Coco`s been promising that patty melt and a dive since naz 1800.<ng>
The best way for the market to advance would be as Cramer says a gentle creep up or as Paragon says a crawl.

The Paragon Traders' Update - August 21, 2000

Fed Watch

Expiration week is now behind us again and the markets full attention is on
Mr. Greenspan and the FOMC meeting Tuesday. The S&P 500 futures continue to trade in an orderly fashion with 1500-1510 providing the resistance and
1480-1485 providing the support. As expected with the FOMC meeting nearly
the market is becoming ultra compressed. Thursday and Friday produced back
to back multi-day compression patterns setting the market up for a major
move. In addition, Mondays have been choppy uneventful sessions leading
setting up moves mid-week. We would fully expect this pattern to continue
this week with FOMC meeting Tuesday. It really is not important to try and
guess the direction of the next major move as it will be large enough to
trade and profit once it is identified. As we have stated all year long the
this is just part of the process the market is going through setting up for
a significant year end mega-trend move. Just like a young child through the
market must crawl before it can walk. The first hurdles are the three-day
range at 1482-1507. A move above or below this range will produce a minimum
25-point move in the direction of the breakout of the range. This will be
the trade of the week and potentially setup a bigger picture trade.

Market Outlook
Where does the market go from here? To no surprise the S&P futures have
formed back-to-back compression patterns just one day before the FOMC
meeting. This compression as well as the results of the meeting will set the
S&Ps back in motion for a substantial move. Remember though that the
institutions are not as quick as individual traders and will take several
days to formulate their strategy following the news. With the S&Ps still
within striking distance of the all-time highs and many mutual fund managers
under performing the market the potential for a major move still exists.
Remember we are nearing the final quarter of the year. If you are a fund
manager your bonus is paid based on performance against the S&P 500. A move
to new highs would force mangers to step up and buy as they will not want to
lag behind the averages. As they buy this will push the market higher
forcing over fund managers in the same position to buy. Continue to prepare
for a major year-end trend move and how you will best profit from this move.
We would be glad to help you formulate a strategy to capture this move. Have
a great week trading.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

***************************************

Paragon Trading, Inc.
Visit our web site at www.paragontrd.com
Email address: staff@paragontrd.com

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