I wonder how they plan to get 10Mbps..... [with]HDR
While I cannot tell you how, I will share with you thre following from the just-released August Gilder Technology Report. As post #2385 said it is almost all about CDMA (QCOM mainly plus some GSTRF) and is a must-read. I will say more about this at the end.
About HDR, Gilder writes: "Neither the first phase of CDMA 2000, which will provide data rates at up to 144 Kbps, plus doubling voice capacity, nor the second phase which incorporates HDR with data up to 2.4 Mbps (expect announcements over the next year pushing that number up several fold) (emphasis added) require dramatic upgrades to the network. As one Qualcomm engineer summed it up: the same hardware, the same waveform, the same channels, the same cell geometries, pin compatible chips, and forward and backward compatible handset."
"Several fold" 2.4Mbps and 10Mbps are not very far apart.
Gilder also writes about WCDMA. He says "Happily, the [WCDMA] standard's worst mistakes are unlikely to survive. The Japanese already plan to ignore such "features" as the "compressed mode" for GSM compatibility. According to John Brewer, of Vincio Group [I have no idea who he or the group is], the Europeans are unlikely to do WCDMA at all: 'WCDMA deployment dates stretch out by a year every six months.'"
He also says that "Qualcomm will have a WCDMA demo-chip available by the end of this year, produced in consultation with one or two unlikely future customers, such as Japan Phone."
In summary, Gilder remains as strong a bull on Qualcomm and CDMA as ever. "The next decade of wireless history belongs to the progressive, inexorable triumph of CDMA and its inventors at Qualcomm."
What makes all of this more powerful to me is how similar in tone and message (if not in the particular details) this piece is to something Gilder wrote in his January 1999 report. Then, not unlike now, Qualcomm had just gone through a major pounding, its stock price having recovered only somewhat from below 40 a few months earlier. Then (like now) even ardent Gilderites were writing him questioning Qualcomm's future and his support for the company and its technology.
Less than a month after that January 909 report, the rumors of ERICY throwing in the towel began to surface, and the rest is history. I for one believe we are on the precipice of something similar. |
