Hi Warren,
I had to do a double take when I read your post. Aside from your speculation on Mr. Market's propensity to swoon over interest income, ahem, I thought your logic was compelling. Much like this similarly useful and intelligent post from the FDRY thread:
Message 14132261
I coulda swore they were both by the same keen observer. :)
But I was wrong. My speculation on this one is that the analysts begin a campaign on it due to the fact that it's really turned the corner on revenues, and that the Sirocco acquisition will add materially to the revenue stream in the next couple of quarters. I'm waiting for the next announcement of successful trials. Seems that this one is poised for much more market visibility. Not to disparage CIEN, which is not slouching toward the poor house either. :)
Warren, I listened to the CC and though my notes are sketchy, I did pick up that SCMR is focused very much on what they described as "mesh-faced" networks, to the exclusion of SONET/SDH gear. They were chosen by 360 Networks because the SCMR solution was scalable to over 100 network nodes, in other words, a very large network like the one that 360 Networks will be building out over the next few years. The impression that SCMR gave was that they had a unique capability here.
Prime competitors for the SM16000 were noted as CIEN, NT and Tellium. With Tellium focused largely on intelligent switching, NT focused on DACS, and Monterey (CSCO) being essentially a no-show. (couldn't copy notes quickly enough to note CIENs pigeon-hole according to SCMR's view.)
Thanks for your financial workup. It really helps to put things in persective. :)
Best, Ray |
