I'm in as well, at 42.
Lehman's speculation is that Qwest >might< not pursue further
deployments.
Shades of the Ciena debacle. When AT&T nixed Ciena as a
supplier, Ciena still had excellent products and was already
diversifying their cutomer list. Ciena tanked on the AT&T
news, and while it took a while, those shares have since
recovered from the teens to top 200 today because mgmt
proved that their products were relevant to more customers
than just AT&T.
The only difference here is that where Ciena tanked on real
news, Next Level is currently tanking on a concern (albeit
a valid one). But this case, like that of Ciena, appears
to be about a customer. Unlike Ciena, this is not about
whether the customer will even deploy the vendors products
(US West has already deployed NL's systems), it seems instead
to be about whether Qwest is willing, and possibly able, to
pursue the deployment strategy of US West at US West's pace.
Unfortunately this market is extremely unforgiving about
uncertainty. I bought Ciena at 14 because despite AT&T, the
products were sound and management was sound. (I happily
still own those shares!) What little I've been able to find
so far regarding NL's products has been good, and I've seen
no significant complaints about management. Given no major
negatives, this ... ahem ... 50% haircut seems overkill to
me. I'm in for a little. If it slips further, I'll look to
pick up a bit more.
Now for a little more thorough DD...
RP |
