<<On the fundamental side, Intel's Xeon chips are in short supply,>>>
This years theme song for the bears.The great parts shortage of 2000. It may go on as long as the YR2K fears, the "under $1k" theme, the "PC is dead theme", or even as long as the Monica Lewinski thing. So we may as well get used to it.
I spent one night trying to compute revenues for the Nov quarter in various ways, like 50 % more employees at x % efficiency, probable revenue increase for the quarter or yr/yr. Got very different answers on each method.
Not enough data, but 30% increase seems really tough.
However, an earnings increase of 55% is achievable. And February could be a great quarter.
Dell insiders, the only ones who have the daily progress and contracted sales data, apparently knew about
the shortfall for August about 1/2 way thru the quarter and
submitted an unusual no. of Form 4's to the SEC beginning around June 15 and continueing to July 3.
So we could have been 'warned', but in a devious way.
I don't know if September is a "window" for selling,
but it may be useful to check proposed insider sales then.
I'm not going to do that, since I'm not selling any more
even if Dell nets less than 1/2 billion ($500,000,000)for the quarter and thus gets creamed for underperfoming(haha)
Tom M. will put that money to work somehow.......
One problem here, in Dell having grown up, is that it attracts analysts like fleas on a dog. Thats 28 now, but was 31 three months ago.
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