. . . . December / January Again? . . .
Carpe, how is Vegas? Looking forward to our Play-By-Play Text-O-Cast live from the floor of the show. Sorry to hear about MYG. . . you sure had it right!. . .you're just ahead of your time.
To all. . .
Trading has been more difficult and frustrating the past several weeks or so than nearly any time I can recall. . . . But before I go there. . .
NOTE: Mark has been doing an especially fantastic job leading daily trading this summer DESPITE the markets, with his "uncanny ability", No, strike that! His "technical and intuitive prowess", which no doubt comes after many months & years of "very hard work and even harder taught lessons". . . .Great job spotting the movers!. . .and we are all quite grateful to him. . . and we further hold him harmless for any sudden turns, losses or otherwise poor trades we may have had due to the extreme market climate or any other reasons.
I can only imagine what Mark's lead will be like when we get a bull rally!!
Back to markets. . .
And once again, this latest slow surge is reminding me of Dec 99. . .low volume moves. . .Fibres one day, wireless the next, bios the next, then the Dow, repeat often. . .
"when in doubt rotate out"
. . . . then Holidility started kicking in by Christmas eve. . .and during the final week of December the junk stocks started popping all over the place and Holidility ran rampant. . . VUSA, BYND, SYBR, etc. real smelly stuff. . . . then the entire market surged sharply on increased volume. . .until we hit the first trading day of the New Year, when the rug was pulled out from the market entirely. . and we were left with margin liquidations galore. . . . with each subsequent surge, it fell back sharply with the furthest drop on the 4th day of the pullback . .Margin Liquidation Day. . .aka/ "4DML" . . it happened 3 or 4 times in January 2000. . .and it seemed the only ones making any SERIOUS money then were the brokerages.
Does everyone remember this?
For the third time I ask. . . . .
Could August be doing the same thing? And if so, could the big surprise we get after Labor Day be the same as we got after the New Year? I smell a series of traps ahead. . .
Imagine us surging ahead to "new August highs" as I've said several times before. . .with hopes high [prodded by the media] that "with renewed volume we would get a real rally" going. . .[then again the volume last year never really picked up until about the second or third week of October!, but few remember]
So where does that leave September? Emulating January with its series of surges then 4DML's? Here is the important thing to remember about low volume rallies. . . because of the low volume they are very easily squashed!
The sharper the climb. . the sharper the decline!
. . .that's why the final 3 days of 1999 felt as though there were no lids on anything. . . like we were all left in the candy store overnight!
If I had to make a prediction today. . . it would be that yes we are being set up for the kill. Steady low volume surge on mostly junk. . .[and everything that is marginable and has a big following]. . .free trading the final 3 or 4 days of August, then slam after slam . . .the floor dropping out . . .starting the day after Labor Day. . .and continuing through the end of September, much as January. . . . then the greenlight given by Greenspan the first week of October. . .with the real rally starting shortly afterwards. . .a brief pause mid-to-late October in sympathy to the Asian markets, [which are going to have some extremely hard times this October, IMO]. . .then November is anybody's guess. . .traditionally it is our best trading month and I would think this next rally will take several months to get off the ground with ever increasing volume beginning in October. . . but these days. . .who knows? I don't think the election will have any effect this year. . . .despite what the historicals show. . .[its a new market. . . younger . . . and with little regard for its heritage.]
I need more input from you guys on whether or not YOU feel we could be setting up in the same manner as December 99 / January 2000. . . . . and suggestions on ways we can profit best from what we think we see. . .using specific stocks and plays.
Thanks all. . .
Rande Is |
