Ticker, no disagreement on the EMLX hoax. As for VLNC, I think that John summed it up pretty well, we have a "Maginot" line in place and balance between the longs and the shorts. The short position is getting into the "excessive" range (is it a record?), however, my experience with large short positions has been that more often than not, the shorts are right. Sure, here and there we have great short squeeze and the shorts err (RMBS was a double example in the last six months). Clearly, if VLNC finally come through with those long awaited additional PO's, there is enough ammunition here for a squeeze, but the long have been waiting for a long time on this, and as mooter said, it is "frustrating" and frustrated longs, just like frustrated shorts may decide to finally give up.
Did any one calculate how much of this short position is nothing more than a hedge? that would help in determining the real fuel available for a squeeze.
As for myself, I am still flat since just above $20 on the last run, and the reason is quite simple, I do not see any indications of an impending run, and at worst, if we breach the $14.5 or so area again, I can see a major rout. Since I am relatively positive on the market in general, I do not have a great probability of a breach.
Zeev |
