<font color=RED>MARKET TIMING - Trains and stations.
<I pretty much still think that GSTRF will trade in the 6 - 12 range for the time being (as we approach the top of that range). Similar to you, I'm not a market timer. I will put additional funds back into G* when I see that the business has turned the corner, or better yet, is approaching the corner.>
Michael, you wrote in one sentence that you are not a market timer, then in the very next sentence wrote that you would put additional funds in when the business has turned the corner.
To me, that sounds like market timing. You will be competing with [or, judging from the price movement over the past few days, have competed and lost] a LOT of people who are ready to 'pull the trigger' the instant they think the business has turned the corner. Or they think it will turn the corner soon. Or they think there are too many people crowding in before they do.
If not a market timer [and I reckon we all are who think Buy Cheap and Sell Dear] then surely you should form a view of what the company will achieve over the next 5 years [or 10] and if the value of the company then means that today it is cheap, you should buy without delay. Otherwise, you are hoping that there is a big preponderance of people who will not notice this jewel lying neglected in the wilderness.
Since people are looking for jewels lying neglected, at some stage, it will be recognized as a jewel and not just an old rock. A person who is not a market timer assumes that any day, the recognition of the jewel value might be noticed by others. It would feel really silly to be standing watching a jewel lying around, and not taking possession of it, only to have a bunch of people come along and grab it from under your nose! Why wait until they make a lunge for it? Pick it up while you have the chance.
Personally, I'm a market timer and I suspect the runup is due to George Gilder doing another big rant, Gregg Powers nailing his colours <font color=RED> to the mast, plus one of those cyclic 'hopeful' episodes which people are prone to. I'd wait for another stomach-wrenching lurch downwards. On the other hand, at some stage, there won't be another downward lurch and the price, maybe that being seen right now, is the lowest price which will ever be seen. Nobody will ring a bell on that day! Though I did a few days ago Message 14227244 and so far, the timing seems impeccable. I gave a couple of toots on the whistle too as the train pulled out of the station. You aren't on board? Oh well, I hope you enjoyed watching Globalstar for a while...see you later...toot, toot, bing-bong, chug, chugg, ..chuggg....chuggggg....toot, toot, chugggggg......chuuuggggggggg....., tooooott, clang, clang.....
Mqurice
PS: Okay, <font color=RED> is a bit dramatic for this post, but I was just playing with the colours [doesn't work if you spell it colour...]
When the Canary Has Landed, you might figure it's a good time to consider the time to buy is nigh. |
