thanks Rob,
I hope you are right, but I am concerned that VZ could do like FON vs PCS: not moving much or even going lower (even if the story on VZ is different than for FON), while the wireless stock skyrockets.
I am just very confused and I wish I would have traded my GTE when I was ahead.
all this engineering is good only for management and investment banks.
If we get no wireless stock, I doubt it will be much good for us, because the only way VZ shareholders , not owning VZ wireless, would benefit from the indirect ownership which you describe, is that if somebody wants VZ wireless would have to do a takeover of VZ. Now: who would have the money to do that and how would the FCC react to that? So forget that.
In this perspective, it is misleading for any analyst to comment about the wireless IPO and the growth of wireless business in the main VZ without mentioning the possibility that VZ shareholders may or may not get VZ wireless stock, so ending with a low-growth stock.
Not getting the wireless stock for VZ shareholders becomes a huge liability, because people will want out of VZ to buy the wireless and no new buyer will want VZ when they can buy the wireless. So: no wireless, no money. Again, for all these analysts to put the wireless growth rate in the VZ stock was very misleading if they knew we will not get wireless stock, because VZ will become like a bank (its growth rate is already there) and will trade for a p/e of 12.
If we don't get any wireless shares, then it was a mistake to buy BEL and GTE for the wireless growth, we should have kept the money in cash (it would have been a great idea), and waited to buy VZ wireless on the IPO.
This because the revenues and eps of wireless will go, for all practical purpose, to the VZ wireless stock, and we will own the local wireline, so the growth of the main VZ will be even lower.
Am I forgetting anything here?
Again, these countless buys and strong buys from Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, First Boston, Smith Barney, if the stock just went up by a dollar for each one of these strong buys, we would be at 120.
this really meant: wait and buy the wireless. Only DLJ kept it as a hold, rightly so.
As far as the DSL, the pitiful destroyment of the various Covad Northpoint Rhythm etc means: it is a business with HUGE losses and to me the SBC strategy looks just so sound and clear. I wish VZ would do the same with Gateway. Better than buying NPNT, or it could be done along with it and see what works better.
With 800 million, they could have given away 1.2 million plus computers for a 2 yrs ADSL subscription. Will they get 1.2 million ADSL clients out of NPNT? I seriously doubt it.
You cannot beat a free computer ready for ADSL: consumers and small business will go wild on this.
In all, I wish I were NOT here, as much as it is always enjoyable to chat with you Rob, but just as ACTM resurrected... VZ hopefully will do well.
ciao
Alfredo |
