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Biotech / Medical : AXCAN Pharma(AXCA)..A GUT FEELING!
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To: Sleepman who wrote (18)8/25/2000 9:31:34 PM
From: Arthur Radley   of 46
 
Dan,
This is my take on AXCA.
1) The next event that will move the stock will be h. pylori news. I agree with you on the importance of this drug.
2) As for Protofrin, on the surface one would have to be disappointed with the revenue flow on this drug. However, either AXCA was sold a bill-of-goods by QLT or AXCA saw some potential down the road. IMO AXCA paid a high price for the drug...based on the history of revenue. With that said, I think the recent announcement about the deal with Diomed will open the door for great revenue. It is my take that in the past, the draw-back was the expensive upfront money that doctors had to pay for the laser system. Now with the low cost, low maintenance, low operational expense laser from Diomed, this will open up Protofrin's potential for more doctors and more out-patient applications.
3. It is my understanding that there is no viable treatment method that currently applies to Barrett's esophagus. If test results are positive for this area of application and now with an inexpensive laser system, maybe AXCA got a bargin from QLT.
4. As for the debt load, currently I don't see this as a problem. It appears that the product revenue coming in from Scandapharma should throw-off enough profits to carry them to the approval of several new drugs that will increase cash flow. I sure wish some of my other biotechs had a steady product revenue flow to support them until the block-buster drug was approval...LGND comes to mind.

With all of the above said, I'm still of the opinion that November 2 will have a big impact on the drug industry. Just think back to Reagan's first election and what happened to the defense industry stocks the next day. I put in an order to buy Rockwell options that had closed the day before at $2.00.....my market order was fill on the open at $7.00.
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