Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 98.04

+1.8%

Dec 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: richard surckla who wrote (51257)	8/25/2000 11:46:24 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 93625

Thanks to GWJ1 on the fool ================================= If you listen to the AMD/DDR supporters in the media and on these message boards you would think nothing is wrong with DDR. Never has been, never will be. I think they are hypocrites. Here's why. If you are an AMD/DDR supporter I want you to take a couple of tests with me and see what you think. First, let's pretend that the fates of RDRAM and DDR have been reversed. DDR is ramping up on schedule and RDRAM still doesn't work. Let's also pretend that back in Oct 99 Intel said it still had a couple of bugs to work out in it's RDRAM chipset but it still expected it to be on the market in Jan. 2000. Now it is July of 2000 and RDRAM still doesn't work. If that were the case would you cut Intel/Rambus as much slack as you are currently giving DDR? No, I know you wouldn't. I remember last Oct. when Intel delayed its RDRAM chipset by just one month. Do you remember what you said about Intel and Rambus back then? Do you remember how stupid Intel was? Do you remember calling RDRAM vaporware? Clearly, based on the article above, Micron fully expected DDR to be on the market in Jan. 2000. Now if a one-month delay in RDRAM meant doom and gloom for Intel/Rambus what does a six-month delay mean for AMD/DDR? Be fair! Here's the next test. Let's pretend that RDRAM and DDR have turned out just the way they have the only difference is that AMD is using RDRAM and Intel is still trying to make DDR work. If that was the case AMD shareholders would be doing cartwheels right now. The critical fourth quarter is coming up and Intel is going to have to launch their P4 with PC133. Even better for AMD, the Mustang, which has been designed from the start to take advantage of RDRAM, is going to be released about then. Can the P4 with PC133 compete with Mustang/RDRAM? No way! Intel has wasted all that time and money on DDR and now they are going to have to spend even more time and money redesigning the P4 to use RDRAM. Finally AMD is going to kick Intel's ass. If this were the case would you still think DDR was going to replace RDRAM? Of course not. At the recent DDR convention in Taiwan the Samsung rep said that creating a standard DDR gerber was critical to mass producing DDR. I checked the JEDEC website last week and they had submitted some more preliminary proposals but still hadn't decided on a standard. What does this mean? Without a standard gerber it would be possible for a Via DDR chipset to work with Samsung memory but not with NEC, or an AMD DDR chipset might work with NEC memory but not with Samsung. What does this mean if you are a PC OEM? It means that DDR is a giant cluster f@#$. If you are an OEM this is what the DDR/RDRAM debate looks like from a marketing/profitability standpoint.

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