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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 112.58

-1.5%

Dec 15 4:00 PM EST

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To: Tom Byron who wrote (57618)	8/26/2000 9:49:38 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 116815

per Tom's post: "The energy complex getting out of control" Bingo ! - glad to see others are seeing the high "potential" of an Oil crisis coming to fruition this winter during peak demand season - creating a true "Oil Crisis" and the accompanying market reactions & flights to safety. <<. Alot may depend upon the energy complex getting quickly out of control, price-wise. Fundamentally everything is in place. Add in the fact that the US has treated Muslims worse than dirt for decades, and some fundamental uprising may be underway. But I can wait if not. Empire collapses aren't that much fun anyway.>> ... I still think that Black Gold's spike will create THE breakout for Yellow Gold. Politically; given the present realization that OPEC has no substantial additional capacity to bring to market; Saddam & Iraq now have the ability to bring total chaos to the Oil markets. Should G.W. Bush be elected; would that bring an interesting scenario to mind ? Saddam & Iraq can not only control Oil prices as they are unquestionably now the "true" swing producer; but they can literally place an immediate "Pox on the House of Bush" - with an inflationary Oil crisis to greet him upon innauguration. A peak demand season spike in Crude & related products (heating Oil)will create an initial flight to safety move in gold's and should "this" move have enough additional follow through - which I think it will given the technical double bottom the XAU has put in and the general "value play" nature of many Gold Stocks; the short covering is the key to the spike in the POG. All of these short-derivative plays will be unwound one day and it is far, far more likely to be caused by a "LTC" type of crisis; than any future slow & steady unwinding of the position accompanied by a slow steady climb in the POG. It will be "event" driven and the "event" potential is falling into place. Black Gold's spike will unleash the fall of the house of cards that the Gold Carry Trade has built. A great trading opp is shaping up as well. We've got the potential to hop off of a new alltime OSX high - taking the profits & nearly simultaneously rotating to a near historic low in the XAU stocks - the 3rd leg the "Hat Trick" will be a "short" on the NAZ & Tech - as an Oil spike will generate enough inflationary pressure to greet the new Presidential administration (perhaps Greenspanless - he should have "got" while the "getting" was good - with Rubin) and further 2001 rate hikes will lead to a collapse of the Tech valuation multiple bubble. I am NOT a "Gold Bug" - never have been. I merely see the unsustainability of the present short-derivative positions & the blatant manipulation of the POG as very similar to what Crude Oil just went through. In late 1998 we saw $8 Crude Oil and the talk of $5 Oil. Everyone spoke of Crude Oil as being a commodity whose time had come & went - given new technologies; not to mention its now much diminished role in inflation (remember food & energy are free - certainly not inflationary, or consumer spending components, or related to future industrial costs; right ?). This theory of course proved to be unsustainable & history taught us that $8 crude virtually guarantee's and equal price spike swing back into the other direction - this unsustainable short position in Gold can not be sustained either & it will also trigger a price spike swing in the other direction led by an unwinding of the short derivative positions that have become irrational. It only needs an "EVENT" to trigger it and the reasonable potential of a Crude Oil spike this winter may just become that catalyst. I wonder if Saddam & Iraq have accumulated any Gold of late with the proceeds of all that smuggled black market crude ? By the way - there are some interesting intelligence reports circulating from the Israeli's on this issue - it's doesn't take much "Thinking Outside the Box" as to what's Saddam's thinking here now does it ? Saddam vs. the House of Bush - part deux We shall see... - The "Hat Trick" is falling into place: 1. Ride Black Gold (OSX) to new highs 2. Take substantial Black Gold profits & Rotate to Yellow Gold - to ride the "Crisis" flight to safety & the resulting collapse of the short derivative positions 3. Short the NAZ

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