Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 226.05

+1.3%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (37002)	8/26/2000 10:13:33 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Great Chart. geocities.com compare that chart to this log plot of AMAT for the same time period. chart.bigcharts.com '95/'96 and '98 have the largest drops in BtoB and show the biggest drops in price. Your chart shows we are nowhere near that and are healthier than last year when we saw more than a doubling in AMAT price. We might even expect your blue 2000 line to turn back up as DRAM equipment buys hit the books later this year (as predicted by Bagley long ago and the press is now starting to write about DRAM shortages) Backlog may be a better indicator of health and your chart shows this is healthy geocities.com Odds are this seasonal chart will also turn to increasing backlog as it did last year and we will see similar price action as we saw last year. I still think the odds are good that the low prices of this year so far have a reasonable chance of being lower than the next cycle lows. It dawned on my last night that once the new 300mm fabs are up and running, there will be equipment buys to convert 200mm fabs so it isn't like we fall off a cliff in 2002 when all the ordered 300mm fabs are built. Kirk out

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