Mark, I'd like to hear more on the downside with RDRT (Stitch, your input will be appreciated as well). I bought on the technical strength, on the first retrenchment from around $5 (at $4), but sold at $4-15/16, not believing it will breach $5, when it did, I bought on the breach at $5.125, but sold when it got to $6-11/16, believing (wrongly) that the Jan, 2000 high of $6-3/4 will serve as overhead resistance. Well, wrong again, so here I go and once more I bought the breakout at an average of $6-7/8, my current position. Technically speaking, this stock could mimic ANCR earlier this year, we have a breakout of an 18 month basing pattern, and that break out was on unprecedented volume of 19 MM shares. The retreat from about $7.5 on Friday was a classic, back down to just above the former overhead resistance ($6.75) and then finishing the day with a dragonfly doji, as strong a finish as one would wish for. Thus the TA points to very good things coming up, but, I am still concerned with the debt load, potential dilution as well as the fact that they probably need something close to $200 MM quarterly to turn a profit. Are these numbers feasible with the slew of qualification announcements this week (and do you have a better estimate of a breakeven point)?
I hate leaving good stuff on the table, but so far I left 3/8 on the table by these exits and reentries, that ain't good for my "trading ego" (VBG). I'd rather stay put and watch if it indeed develops an explosive move. Do you feel that the fact that other DD's have also participated in this advance indicates a secular change in the sector's fortunes?
TIA
Zeev |
