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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Rarebird who wrote (83320)8/26/2000 5:15:51 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
But this market is a stock pickers market on the long and short side. I have a price target of 4450 on the COMP by the end of this year.

Absolutely Rarebird!!

I'm seeing and hearing a lot of comments about the VIX lately and how complacent investors are. But that's not necessarily the case since there is still a ton of money on the sidelines in money market accounts, as well as the potential that institutions will begin converting Euros to Dollars at a high rate should it continue its likely downtrend. A lot of institutions are already long and "strong" the Euro and getting whipsawed by the poor German economic statistics.

The VIX is nothing more than a volatility measure and its number can be increased either by downward or upward volatility. The key is now to analyze with trend will win out, forcing the opposing side to either dump their positions or quickly cover their shorts and drive the market even higher in a squeeze.

I may be wrong but I think a lot of what happens hinges on the action in the Euro and whether capital flight from there will take us to your 4450 range or even higher. Better to bet your money on an economy that hard for even AG to pummel into submission, than into one where they are desparately attempting to support their currency.

Btw, it could mean we have a strong bullish move upward, and a BUSH victory. If Gore wins, he'll be met with long-delayed investigations from his vice-presidency that will hobble his entire adminstration.

Regards,

Ron
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