Sam, good questions, but I probably can't answer all. I am familiar with whats going on in several places outside the U.S, but mainly from a technical viewpoint. The most interesting markets that I am familiar with are in Latin America and Eastern Europe, neither of which had very good telecom infrastructure ten years ago, but are making a lot of progress now. Most countries in these regions have figured out that a good reliable telecom system is a prerequisite to stable development.
In Latin America, follow Telefonica de Espana aquisitions and you will find rapid telecom network growth and improvement: Compania de Telecomm. de Chile, Telefonica del Peru, and Telefonica de Argentina for example. Chile has one of the world's most open telecom markets. There are few restrictions on who can be a local telecom provider or long distance provider. They already have facilities based, competitive, multiple cable television systems, wireless, and wireline telephone networks in many cities... something that was supposed to be the key goal of the Telecom Act of 1996 here in the US. Now you understand my disdain for government-run solutions to telecom technology planning and deployment.
The reason that the Latin America telecom market is appealing is that many governments have wised up and privatized the old state run monopolies. The biggest market, Brazil, is an exception, but I think its about to go private too. True to form, they have one of the worst wireline telecom networks for a country of its size that I have ever seen. Little surprise that 1 million people applied for the initial 50,000 cellular phone subscriptions when a cell system was recently activated in one city. Argentina used to be the same way, but it has turned around quickly in the last 3 or 4 years.
I don't know whats going on in Israel, but I don't think there is much competition allowed in the local wireline telecom market there. It doesn't surprise me that the cellular market there is hot. I think they have multiple competitive providers, and very little regulation, so there again is the key barometer of what it takes to improve infrastructure. Israel's trump card in telecom are several good homegrown equipment manufacturers like Tadiran. They make a great central office powered, mini digital loop carrier system similar to products made by PairGain in the US. These things are selling big time outside of the leading industrial nations to get 24 or 32 derived copper telephone lines from two copper pairs. They also make some wireless local loop telephone systems that will go over well in LDCs. WLL and mini digital loop carrier systems will probably account for over half the telephone line growth in the developing world over the next decade.
There are dozens of other places where lots of telecom action is going on. Asia is a giant, but competition are privitization are lagging in most places.
Effect of LEOS on competition? Who knows. I don't see it as a cost competitive solution given the prolifiration of other lower cost wireless technologies and competitors. Sure, globe trotting business leaders will buy, but I don't know if it will reach the mass market.
Universal Service? It was a honorable goal when the only way to get phone service to a customer was via a pair of copper wires. New wireless technology is making it not only more feasible to serve those hard to reach locations, but also profitable to serve them as well. Just as multiple mini dish satellite companies have price wars to sign up customers in the most remote rural areas today, the same will occur in the not too distant future for other wireless telecom technologies.
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