Ask DrBob Message Board - Msg: 14281124

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Drbob512 who wrote (1851)	8/26/2000 11:53:52 PM
From: Return to Sender	of 100058

Here is my take for what it's worth. It may not be much since no one can truly accurately predict the future. The Nasdaq is due for a rally on volume. The fear here is that we are already close to the top end of a very limited trading range. Summer is nearly over and many people are not only hoping for but expecting a rally after Labor Day. The FED is definitely not going to raise rates again and will most likely lower interest rates after the election because the economy is already showing signs of slowing on big ticket items due to higher interest rates. Can the Nasdaq rally based on expectations for lower interest rates in say 4 months? Sure it can but if the economy doesn't continue to put out numbers that could be equated with a soft landing then we might very well see the NYSE lose some steam at the same time as we see a limited rally in the Nasdaq. The NYSE contains a greater number of the stocks whose earnings will be effected by the decline in durable goods sales, new home buying and an overall slowing economy. The Nasdaq on the other hand contains a larger number of beat up technology stocks whose earnings growth potential has already been trimmed to much more fair value levels. Lets assume I'm right and economic numbers come in a little worse than expected but the FED has its hands tied until after the election before rates can be lowered.... The Nasdaq can rally but only so far until the FED makes it clear that interest rates must be lowered to stimulate economic growth. Basically I think we have another 3 to 4 months of trading in a range on the Nasdaq with an upward trend and no test of previous lows while the NYSE is challenged by the slowing of the economy and no clear statements from Mr. Greenspan that interest rates are indeed coming down. Great thread! RTS

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next