Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 328.02

+1.8%

1:02 PM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (4633)	5/18/1997 3:45:00 PM
From: Kumar Nathan	of 70976

Paul & Everybody: Last week I was thinking about the future of Economy and AMAT and the whole nine yards. Loosing some sleep and some hairs. I got some response about possible Fed action. My take is that the interest rate is going to increase. Pundits (Warren Buffet & others) have learned and hinted us, " Dont challenge Alan". This meeting is contest of power. It is congress reaction of Balanced budget; markets reaction on total exuberance and adolescent behavior; labor markets pressure. Unemployment rate is 4.3 or 4.9% ( I dont know the finite #). This tells me that anybody who can fog a mirror will get a job and demand more pay. There is a tremendous pressure. My contradictory argument is that Alan was complaining, in the past, that people were not saving etc., etc.,. Now people people started to save more and started invest more thus we see too much money chasing too few stocks and risky thing is that too much money is chasing index funds. Due to this you see wild fluctuations in stock market. I am seeing a danger here. Talking about AMAT. People like Tito, Ricardo & others who analyze conference calls can clarify me. AMAT is saying that they are focusing on multi-chamber tools. This means single wafer and multi-chamber solution. This will reduce wafer processing time and minimize micro-contamination and other wafer defects during processing. If this is the strategy in their roadmaps, how the individual divisions at AMAT are going to react?. How external competetions are going to react? Will it involve more mergers in this industry. LRCX buying NVLS or vice versa?. Now AMAT has close 8 business units each one has their budgets and operate like independent companies. Will it be the future, if there is multi-chamber solution. I dont know. But I feel this is the critical success factor for the equipment industry. We as investor need more data, as to fabs point of view on this. Data on sale of multichamber solutions so far? and the growth pattern on this compared to individual process tools?. Is Multichamber will be a viable one in future technolgies? or will it rule the future?. These questions remains to be answered. I would request somebody smarter than me to fill them so that we can put the puzzle and determine the future and growth pattern of AMAT. I have complete confidence and ability of AMAT management. But as investor I want to quantify it. Regards Kumar.

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