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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (8230)	8/27/2000 8:56:11 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (8) of 12823

Re: Optical Infrastructure Spending - What's Wrong with this Picture? "He says the optical transport part of the industry is the fastest growing optical area with about a $4 billion market projected for this year and up to $25 billion in 2003." Thread- The excerpt above is from RTS referenced article, "Optical boom spurs visions of grandeur." The answer to what's wrong with this picture(http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14267914) is still a mystery to me. Maybe Enam has it right. The, "average investor," is going to be the one to feel the pain of reality? Or are the TAM projections incredibly far off? The above excerpted figure correlates with my previous posting of a $34 billion market in 2004 by Pioneer Consulting. So at least two seemingly different sources seem to agree with the projected TAM. Now let's say Nortel does get $100 billion for their optical division. Add it to my previous very crude figure of $251 billion in optical equipment players market caps and that takes it around $351 billion market cap today. And I don't even follow the market that closely to name the many other big player's market caps in the optical space. So I'm still guessing that the TAM for the optical space in 2003 or 2004 is probably 1/10th to 1/20th of the market cap of the ALL the equipment companies vying for a spot in it today. Although I cannot figure it out, I'm not fighting the tide of investor sentiment on this one yet. Too many cheerleader articles, brokerage houses, and their analysts out there pushing optics. Add to that, big companies making huge offers for start-ups with what some call, phony money. Nonetheless it happens and is real(for now). Ken I read your post to Frank on the new FCTF thread(http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14279524) and if you were being facetious, I got a chuckle out of it. As you say, "Why not?" $100 billion would finance a lot of fiber. Then the merry-go-round would keep spinning. But aren't we getting into something called a perpetual motion machine? I thought they didn't work.<vbg> -MikeM(From Florida) TAM- total available market

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