George, I believe that the VIX was just under 20 last November, just before a massive rally on the NAZ. The VIX is a better indicator of fear than complacency, IMHO. I believe that the VIX has historically been below 10. I would use the VIX only as a supporting indicator for tops, extreme ( and "peaky") VIX readings at bottom are better indicators of fear than low readings indicators of "complacency".
As for the market, somehow, I am not as bearish as most of the thread here, until the election is over and with Summers going into the market buying treasuries (adding liquidity), money will be seeking a "home", and the US market might be it. I would not be surprised to see some Japanese money ending up here as well. If you look at the Nikkei, it is not a pretty picture, yet the postal system's liquidity should find (at least a small part of it) home elsewhere, since it is not going massively in their market, maybe some of it is ending up either directly or indirectly here.
Zeev |
