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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: sditto who wrote (30565)8/27/2000 6:21:10 PM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
open my eyes to the next big thing before it passes me by Sditto, in the early stages NOBODY really knows what's going to be the next big thing. The people doing the R&D in their heart of hearts are often not sure, though they may talk optimistically. Often they believe what they want to believe. Nascent technologies are notoriously prone to failure as some unremovable obstacle suddenly rears up. Cost,difficulty for the end user, environmental hazards, discovery of an obscure patent which covers this, FUD from competitors resulting in a superior technology getting defeated, because it didn't have a 10/1 advantage over the old technology, only 2/1. etc. etc. IMHO the gorilla game is not about finding the next big thing before it gets widely recognized and the stock has increased enormously in price(aka "before it passes me by") but it's about deciding on which rapidly growing stock is really a gorilla. I heard a talk by Bill Joy in 1985 in which he spoke about MSFT's monopoly. I immediately talked my sister into buying some. I waited myself until ten years later and still made a great great profit from early 1996 to early 1999. Of course she made the much greater profit but gorillas are nearly always safe investments. My point is that I didn't get in early but still made a wonderful profit. Gilder is full of early suggestions, some of them disappear towards zero, a few may indeed become gorillas. That's not the gorilla game.
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