nazticker - try to check indicators, at least in pairs:
RSI and Bollinger Bands can send signals,
Stochastics and MACD, send others
For the VIX, I make a triplet, with equities P/C R and CoT (commitment of traders).
Low VIX numbers are the confirmation of low volatilities, but is is more important to watch for short term changes: volatility of the volatility.
The equities P/C R (of which I watch the 21 DMA), is bullish when it comes back down from >.55, and bearish when in goes back up from <.40.
Buy signal on the P/C R only came Oct 22. There were no sell signals for the Jul 19-Aug 10 correction. It also flashed sell signals on Jan 04, Jan 26, Apr 13. On May 12, there was not a real buy signal (or maybe should I change my levels). Equities P/C R is currently at neutral level at it has been since June.
CoT is currently: flat for the Nasdaq, commercials are net short SP500 and Dow (commercials are reputed to be right, so they expect lower SP and Dow).
We have for the Naz: VIX lowering, P/C R neutral, CoT flat = possible break to both directions or stay flat.
For SP and Dow: VIX lowering, P/C R neutral, CoT bearish = expected move downwards.
So, currently no help from the "sentiment" indicators. |
