Sam, so now they predict that next year's semi chip shipments will reach $300 B in 2001? Oh, gosh, this is a bad omen alright. My model still has the semi equip stock as having seen their peak in prices for the cycle, but with this forecast, I may have to change my own forecast that a number of the semi chip will make another new high (g).
I think that I will stay with my forecast that some chip makers like INTC, ADI, ALTR, XLNX, SSTI will make new highs, I may add SNDK if it breaks through the $110/$120 area with huge volume, but the chip equip sector , IMHO, has seen its high in stock prices (not shipments and profits) already, thus my commitments there are going to be for attempts at matching the highs. Of course, I'll change my mind if some critical levels (such as the $95 area in AMAT, the $52 area in CYMI and the $100 area in VECO are taken out.)
Right now, for the next few months, I am quite bullish (but I have to redeploy, since I got to 45% cash, the 10% rise in the folio last week was partially responsible for that high cash level, not any major renewed bearishness).
Zeev |
