Mark, Alomex - Why a "cheery" attitude toward COS & COSFF? Let me count the ways.
1. The stock is close to book value and heavily discounted by the market. Basically, the "balloon" is on the ground.
2. Corel has a comparable office suite that stacks up favorably against MSFT's on the Win 95 platform.
3. Corel's office products are available for many platforms.
4. Corel is beginning to fill important commercial niches with the specialty suites. This effort will pick up steam fast. (Does this sound to "cheery?")
5. Suite 8 is about to show up on store shelves, magazines, advertising, etc.
6. Proven brand name recognition with WordPerfect, CorelDraw, and Paradox.
7. Any increase in revenue without additional overhead, (except advertising) will bring increased EPS, pumping enough "hot-air" into the balloon (the stock) to cause it to rise.
8. Corel controls the majority of the "graphics" market.
9. Corel is leading the away among the big three software giants in JAVA technology.
10. Microsoft is paying attention to Corel, although at some distance. This indicates that Corel has something MSFT execs are concerned about.
11. Dr. Cowpland, among others, has the courage to challenge the great mother of personal computing. He's not perfect, but he is working out the "kinks." The market has not yet given Corel credit for this bold move, but as its earnings grow, the market will buy in. (Does this sound too "cheery?")
12. Corel wisely got out from under the weight its multimedia line in such a way that it will still benefit them if sales do take eventually take off.
13. Corel is refocusing its efforts on its core software by creating a subsidiary to take advantage of hardware in the NC arena-including its video conferencing hardware.
14. Corel has received the criticism of its advertising problems and is attempting to turn it around. (We'll get some idea of "how much" in June with the new ads to launch Suite 8.)
15. The volume in the last couple of weeks has risen showing signs of interest in the stock.
Can you guys, or anyone else, think of additional things to be cheerful about COS & COSFF?
Now, how about some things to be cautious or negative about.
1. Too high overhead for the present level of revenue.
2. Will the introduction of Suite 8 hit the market with the same force as Office 97?
(At least on a comparable basis of market share.)
3. How soon will Corel be able to exploit its lead with the JAVA suite and the NC?
4. Will Corel be able to come up with the combination of product features, marketing and advertising efforts that will cause the "masses" to switch to Corel.
I'll bet you guys, and others, can add the the "negative" list to maintain relevance and balance. I would like to hear all of the negatives than can be pointed out.
A very "cheery" Up, UP, & Away!
Scott |
