JC - I don't think the NAV is as large a factor in determining what LDP trades at in the market, rather it is a combination of expectations for LDP's IPOs, and the climate for VC/incubators. At this point there is enough of a following so that purely technical factors will have a more limited impact - there is too much money ready to be committed should LDP ease off. That means that even if for some reason a big seller appears, he cannot depress the price for any appreciable amount of time - if the price declines, eager buyers step in. This limits the impact of LDP's "illiquidity". Also, LDP often tends to trade counter to the market - it can actually rise in a down market, and sometimes eases off during a hot one. This to me indicated accumulation... when the market is down, it is easier to buy without triggering a huge run - so you'll see LDP climb slightly in a down market. Meanwhile, if the market is very hot, the buyer(s) tends to sit pat, not wanting to create a firestorm - and as a result, any small selling can result in a drift down in price. However, this drift down is quickly corrected by bargain-hunters. If you analyze the trading from the past few weeks, you'll see that pattern - and indeed, it is accumulation. Once the buying is done, well, that'll be when the test will come.
Morgan |
