Chip sales strong until 2002, but keep eye on capacity, says analyst
Semiconductor Business News
(08/28/00, 07:39:40 PM EDT)
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Semiconductor revenue growth will continue strong for a couple of years, but unprecedented spending on new wafer-processing capacity will most likely cause a dramatic slowdown in late 2002, if not sooner, said chip analyst Grant Johnson of Cahners In-Stat Group today.
The market research firm here today released a new semiconductor report, which places chip sales at $316 billion in four years, following a 16.2% compound annual growth rate between 1999 and 2004. In-Stat's forecast shows chip revenues surging 41.1% to $210 billion in 2000. Chip sales will still ring up strong with a 23.5% increase in 2001, followed by 14.1% growth in 2002, pushing the worldwide semiconductor market to $296 billion.
But chip revenues will peak in 2003 at $318 billion with a growth of just 7.5%, followed by a dip of 0.9% in 2004 to $316 billion, according to the new In-Stat report.
Currently, the outlook calls for the up-cycle to continue until the second half of 2002, said analyst Johnson, but capital spending is now running at "beyond record levels," he noted. Now, Johnson worries that much of the new capacity could all hit the market at about the same time in the next couple of years. If so, the start of a slowdown could be pulled in to early 2002, he suggested.
The possibility of an early slowdown was also raised last week during an analyst panel discussion hosted by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group. The consensus on the panel was that semiconductor capital spending was now running at 80% above last year's level (see Aug. 24 story).
But for now, chip makers are still scrambling to keep up with strong demand. The In-Stat report says momentum is being driven by emerging new markets in China and Asia. In fact, the market research firm predicts that the Asia Pacific region will grow at a record rate and overtake the Americas as the leading chip-consuming region by 2004. On the distant horizon, China is expected to become the second largest chip-consuming country in the world by 2010, said the report. |
