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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Lucretius who wrote (14402)8/29/2000 12:35:18 AM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
hard to say...i think though that the train will pull out of the station slowly at first. it is highly unusual for an entire market to swiftly break down out of the blue...it usually takes a few heavy down days to get a panic going in earnest. the clowns will be caught in it anyway, because by the time they realize it's the real McCoy, it will be too late...

anyway, all this may still be a long way off...i wouldn't bet on it beginning tomorrow....

an exceptional case would be presented by an unavoidable total catastrophe the due date and consequences of which are known well in advance, such as a group of large rocks hitting the earth from space. the minute such an occurrence became known, prices would simply plunge with a huge gap down. however, it would make put winnings useless, as the frizzelbuns would become worthless too....

a surprise natural catastrophe like the magma chamber underneath Yellowstone Park erupting would probably not afford enough time for the market to react...by the time anybody could put in a sell order, they'd be buried in 2 meters of volcanic ash...the indices would be frozen near their highs, forever.
if outside the immediate disaster area, you could try to short the European bubble....

of course it is highly unlikely for anything like this to come to the bears' aid...a simple bursting of the credit bubble due to a confidence shaking trigger event is much more likely, and actually probably unavoidable.

good night!
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