Brendan: In my opinion, it will be at least eight years before Ballard starts making any money from operations (it has a lot of cash, and earns interest on that, but the accountants consider that "non-operating.") Mercedes is hoping to have the first fuel cell powered cars on the road in eight years. Assuming the schedule doesn't slip, and it is profitable to Ballard from the get-go, that is when it will start making money. Most likely, the first real profits won't show up until the cars have be under production for a few years, so my best guess is really ten to twelve years.
I really don't see how anyone can catch up to Ballard's lead in PEM type fuel cells. It appears to be well protected by patents and general know how. Nevertheless, a few other outfits are trying, such as Jet Propulsion Labs, which has a lot of experience in fuel cells from the US space program.
There are, however, several other types of fuel cells, such as phosphoric acid, molten carbonate, and solid oxide. Other companies are as far ahead in those types of fuel cells as Ballard is in PEM cells. PEM fuel cells can be made small and powerful, and thus are natural for eventual use in vehicles, but they have big disadvantages for other applications, such as stationary (utility) power, which is a market easily as big as vehicles.
As regulars on this thread know, I am a fan of Energy Research (ERC on the A.S.E.) which is the leader in molten carbonate fuel cells. It expects to be selling fuel cells for stationary power at a very competitive price in three years. If all goes well, it will be a multi-billion dollar company before Ballard shows its first nickel profit.
Besides getting to market many years before Ballard, ERC as a stock has the advantage of having a market cap that is tiny relative to Ballard's. ERC has a little more than 4 million shares outstanding, so at $10 it is valued by the market at $42,000,000.
Ballard, after Daimler's recent purchase, has about 21 million shares, and only controls one third of the profits from the fuel cell engine joint venture with Daimler. At US $27, Ballard is valued by the market at $570,000,000 and that only buys you one third of the main action. So there is no contest as to which is the better value. In addition, ERC has an impressive battery technology, which Corning, Inc. has taken a license and spending some big bucks to commercialize, so you get more than one chance at bat. |
