Some people are saying to themselves "WHAT DOES THIS NR MEAN here".
My quick analysis of this play is that these are flow testing numbers as they say in the NR" production will be increased once all systems are tested and scheduled remedial work completed on each well."
Still looks great to me and is another step on the way.Osprey has a 75% payout until there costs are recovered in the play and then they drop to a 50% interest.So for the near term I will use 75% based on the figures they released in the NR.
Anadarko--well producing 200MCF/day X 4.00us/mcf=$800.00 per day X 147% for conversion to Can or $ 1176.00/day X 340 days = $399,840.00 X 75%= $299,880.00 CAN/year to OEL before payout and$199,920.00 after payout at 50%.
5-6 wells at 60 BOPD each = 360BOPD X 30.00us/BBl=$10,800.00US per day X 147%=$15876 X 340=$5,397,840 X 75%= $4,048,380.00can / year to Osprey before Payout and $2,698,920 after payout at 50%.
5-6 wells at 200MCF each per day= 1,200MCF X $4.00us/mcf=$4,800.00us/day X 147%=$7056.00/day X 340=$2,399,040.00/year X 75% = $1,799,280.00/year to Osprey before payout and $1,199,520.00 to Osprey after payout.
So here is the summary:
Before payout to Osprey After Payout to Osprey
at 75% in Canadian at 50% in Canadian
Anadarco...$299,880.00 $199,920.00
6 wells .$4,048,380.00 $2,698,920.00(oil)
6 wells .$1,799,280.00 $1,199,520.00(gas)
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$6,147,540.00 $4,098,360.00
Total outstanding shares per Canada Stockwatch 5,344,288
Fully diluted is around 11,000,000 shares I am told.
Revenue per share before payout on total outstanding shares based on this news release before payout= $6,147,540.00 dicvided by 5,344,288=$ 1.15/share.
Revenue per share after payout based on outstanding shares based on this news release would be $4,098,360.00 divided by 5,344,288 = $.77/share.
Fully Diluted Analysis
Before payout= $6,147,540 divided by 11million shares =.56/share revenue
After payout =$4,098,360.00 divided by 11 million shares =.37/share revenue
Bayou Choctau
As you will remember here is the post after the bayou Choctau release and my pro forma analysis and resulting revenue per share calculations.
"100% payout.This means Opsrey will receive 100% of the revenue from the Bayou Choctau play until their investment is recaptured and then they go to 60%.Based on this scenario then assuming 100 barrels of oil per day at a conservative 25.00(us)per barrell= $2500.00us per day or using a currency conversion factor of 147%= 3675.00/day X 340 days= $1,249,500.00yearly.
Add to this the fact that they have stated 8 more wells will be brought on before year end producing in excess of 75 BOPD EACH and that is an additional 600 BOPD to come on line befroe year end. 600 BOPD X 25.00=$15000.00 us per day X 147% for conversion X 340 days =$7,497,000 from these wells meaning the total payout should be done in a very quick time.
$1,249,500.00 Can+ $7,497,000.00 can = 8,746,500.00/year from the Bayou Choctau play alone.After payout the percentage to Osprey drops to 60% of 8,746,500.00=$ 5,247,900.00 Can.Not bad at all.Applying a multiple of 3 to cash flows per share should give a good indication of where this should be trading at by year end based on Bayou Choctau alone.
Cash flow per share projected to year end on Bayou Choctau details in the press release:
Total O/S shares = 5,334,288
Total Revenue =$ 8,746,500.00 Can X 60% after payout=$5,247,900.00
Before Payout = $8,746,500.00
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5,334,288 shares O/S
Cash flow per share before payout = 1.64/share
Cash Flow after payout= $ 5,247,900.00
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5,334,288
Cash flow per share after payout = .98/share
Applying a valuation multiple of 3 to cash flows this stock should be trading at 1.64 X 3 = 4.92 before payout and 2.94/share after payout.And the best part of all of this is they stated they have positive cash flow from the Jenner Project in Alberta and from the Livingston field and are awaiting info from their partners before they tell us what they are doing.This is getting exciting....Oh and we should also hear about the Northern Louisiana Project as well by the end of the month.I just bought 5000 more at 1.39 and am going after more.This is cheap in this range and by the looks of things could become very explosive once people see how undervalued it is now...
The Osprey
The Osprey |
