Michael,
I look for stocks that are over extended and have a relatively high PE, or the reverse, as the case might be. But I especially pay close attention to daily charts as a foundation for making my decision to go long or short at stock (and ideally, market) turning points. I use moving average cross overs and stochastics, and anything else that might help. See the chart link I posted yesterday or SI's charting page to play with these measures.
I chose VTSS because of its history of volatility and its high PE (whatever it is, 90 to 400??!!) I follow all the 20 semi stocks in the SMH. I've traded INTC, LSI, AMAT, MU, VTSS, NVLS, SNDK and KLAC this past year.
I could see VTSS pulling back to between 68 and 52, maybe less which would be a bullish sign. The tech market is short term overextended and due for a pullback. I also trade QQQ and follow the Nasdaq 100 stocks.
As I've said before I'm also concerned about a slowing economy, earnings warnings (T, late yesterday is a case in point), high tech PEs that are likely to come down over the next 6 to 12 months, and investor sentiment.
I didn't sleep very well last night. I worry too much.
BeckyA |
