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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (30668)8/29/2000 1:04:01 PM
From: Apollo  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
cyclical nature of the semiconductor business reflects itself in a 4 year cycle, not a seasonal one. If the current cycle follows true to course, we should see excess capacity in 2001 followed by decreasing average selling prices and lower profit margins as manufacturers fight to maintain their market share.

Thanx for the perspective.
My WAG is that the growth of the Internet will change historic cyclicity. As the Internet grows, the need for internet access devices grows, and the need for servers grows. I think chip sales will remain strong for the next few years. To expect a downturn based on history would require that there either will be an economic downturn in 2001-2002, or growth in the Internet will slow.

I don't anticipate either.

Best,
Apollo
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