Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 226.05

+1.3%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (37048)	8/30/2000 2:25:16 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (2) of 70976

I am a "one-trick pony" The problem with that strategy is that you must wait 3-5 years for the cycle low and then take your fat inside pitch. Those are certainly easy but they don't come along very often! Since you will have a little more time on your hands, if you are willing to spend some of it in front of your terminal, you might consider a different strategy. I subscribe to Andrew Vance's RadarView which now costs $1500 per year (tax deductible of course). Thank God he does not charge on a percentage of profits made or it would be MUCH more for me. For this you get a daily report (yesterday's was 18 pages worth) covering 80 quality companies in semiconductors, semi-equipment, networking, wireless communication and internet infrastructure stocks. Andrew's forte is semi-equipment stocks since he was a process engineer for about 20 years. His methodology is to select 80 solid companies in the previous areas and then follow them closely with suggested Buy Zones and Loss Limit Thresholds. He uses these to play the +/- 10-20% volatilities that are common in these sectors. If you have the time to follow the market, a deep discount broker and a tax-deferred account (IRA or Charitable Remainder Trust) you can make a lot of money on this volatility...of course you can do the same with a taxable account but have short-term gains and record-keeping for annual Schedule D's to worry about. I personally like to stay nearly invested and exchange stocks that are temporarily overvalued for those that are temporarily undervalued. There are ALWAYS good bargains to be had thanks to our analyst and market-maker induced fire sales (ASYT and BRKS are two notable examples the past few months). It's interesting that Andrew bought 5000 shares of EMLX (even though it is not one of the 80 he tracks) at $50 last Friday because he knew of it from following QLGC. If you have confidence in the strength of the analysis Andrew has put into his RadarView 80, you can wait for one of the analysts to put some of the 80 on temporary fire sale and be prepared to jump on them. Just to make this relevant to AMAT, Andrew is currently holding AMAT that he bought at $69 on August 10, but has an exit set at $82. He raises these limits as the stock moves up and is fairly religious about following them. I don't have the time to stay in front of my terminal and don't trust market-makers with limit orders, so I'm sometimes caught holding the bag when a stock drops below the limit. BUT, if you can folllow his methodology you can do well trading the volatility of these stocks...you just may not catch as many up and down cycles as he does if you don't monitor them continuously. I have no interest in RadarView except as a very satisfied customer. You can check it out at radarview.com ...he has a 1 week free trial offer.

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